Eliquis (apixaban) is on course for one of the largest single-asset revenue collapses in pharmaceutical history. Its sales are forecast to fall from $14.4 billion in 2025 to just $205 million globally by 2031, a 98.6% erosion, as the BMS and Pfizer partnered anticoagulant loses patent protection in Europe in 2026 and the US in 2027, with generic entry and peak revenue destruction arriving in 2028, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.
Eleni Tokali, Senior Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The collapse ranks among the largest single-asset loss-of-exclusivity (LOE) events the industry has seen. This is not a gradual fade; it is a near-total revenue wipeout for one of pharma’s most dominant brands.”
According to GlobalData’s Drugs Sales & Forecast Database, the erosion is geographically sequenced. Excluding the US, Eliquis’s rest of world revenues are forecast to fall nearly 75% by 2027 as European generic entry takes hold through tendering and formulary switching. The US, representing close to 90% of brand revenues by 2027, faces additional pressure from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which imposed a Medicare maximum fair price of $231 per 30-day supply in January 2026, reducing net revenues two years ahead of the patent cliff. When the US generic entry arrives in 2028, a near-50% single-year revenue decline is projected.
Tokali adds: “What sets the US cliff apart is the IRA’s role in front-loading the damage. By the time generics arrive in 2028, Eliquis will already be operating at a government-capped price, leaving BMS with minimal room to defend revenue when substitution begins.”
BMS has responded with aggressive M&A: the $14 billion acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics and the $4.1 billion acquisition of RayzeBio represent deliberate bets on neuroscience and radiopharmaceuticals as replacement growth platforms. The September 2024 FDA approval of Cobenfy, the first new class of schizophrenia treatment in decades, marks the first clinical validation of that strategy.
Tokali concludes: “The Eliquis cliff is one of the starkest examples yet of what single-asset concentration risk looks like at blockbuster scale. BMS has moved quickly with Karuna and Cobenfy, but no pipeline transition can fully absorb a $14 billion revenue wipeout in six years.”
